The US and North Korea have a rocky relationship regarding nuclear weapons and nuclear proliferation. In fact, North Korea has often cited their withdrawal from the NPT as the result of US bad-faith in its obligations and diplomacy. Around this time last year, tensions with North Korea were heightened in response to joint US-South Korean military exercises and there was some legitimate fear of a nuclear attack. Officials in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, made numerous inflammatory anti-American statements and state controlled media played clips showing a broken America destroyed by North Korean nuclear weapons. Although these clips were mostly taken from video games and movies, the message was clear: North Korea wanted America out of its backyard.

While North Korea’s threats were an American and Korean media highlight the reasons behind it were not as well-known. The United States was conducting joint annual military exercises with South Korea, and the North felt insecure having US troops so close to its border. Since 2002, South Korea and the U.S. have been conducting joint annual military exercises known as operation “Foal Eagle.” Foal Eagle is an annual two-month military exercise involving approximately 10,000 US and South Korean troops engaging in ground, air, naval, expeditionary and special operations training exercises. The exercises are expected to start today February 24, 2014 and as expected, North Korea is not happy.

Later this month, North and South Korea had planned to sponsor family reunions for families separated by the North South divide. This was the first state-sponsored reunion since 1953 and were anticipated to be an important reconciliatory act for Korean society. However, until recently North Korea planned to cancel the event in protest of what it interpreted as “practice for a U.S.-led invasion into the North.[i] However, high-level negotiations amongst South Korean and North Korean officials were able to save the reunion.

While the reunion was saved, it still seems likely that we can expect North Korea to increase inflammatory and anti-American rhetoric over the next few weeks both prior to and during the military exercises. This type of dialogue should be expected as Pyongyang previously reported in a state-run newspaper that, "The US is working hard to kick off large-scale joint military drills this year, too, for the purpose of mounting a pre-emptive nuclear attack upon [North Korea]." Pyongyang’s fears of a military attack are no surprise, as Foal Eagle operations involve flying carriers, which are capable of carrying nuclear weapons. This type of perceived security threat assures that North Korea will continue on its chosen course of provocative dialogue.



 

Iran has spent the past few months decorating the headlines of our newspapers. Iran claims its uranium enrichment program is for energy, but American news reports and general pubic opinion believe the program is focused on creating nuclear weapons. Adding to the lack of clarity over the program’s goal, since 2002, Iran has consistently refused to ratify an additional protocol, which would allow IAEA inspectors access to sites where nuclear material is used and stored. In 2012, the controversy over the program’s purpose culminated in severe economic sanctions, imposed by the US and EU, which targeted Iran’s rich oil industry and ultimately negatively impacted their overall economy. While some believe that it was these sanctions that brought Iran to the negotiating table, others believe it was the 2013 election of President Rouhani, whose political platform is more moderate than other Iranian politicians.

In November of 2013, a short-term agreement was made suspending Iran’s nuclear activity in return for a limited and controlled release of some of the sanctions damaging its economy. This agreement has been met with a variety of responses. While many people are just happy that we are giving diplomacy a chance, others are not. In the United States, a Senate bill called the “S. 1881: Nuclear Free Iran Act,” which refuses the release of sanctions with Iran and commits the U.S. to provide support to Israel in the event of an Israeli-Iranian war, is gaining traction amongst both Republican and Democrat politicians and congressman who want a stronger stance against Iran. In Iran, the Supreme Leader, renowned clerics, and local politicians have viewed the talks critically and claimed them to be in need of stronger Iranian supervision. In fact, these opposition parties succeeded in adding two conservative politicians to Iran’s negotiating team for the nuclear talks, stating that these “legal and technical experts…will be able to prevent misunderstandings by the Americans.”

The most recent round of nuclear talks took place last week in Vienna between Iran and the countries known as the “5 + 1 group,” including Germany and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council.   Generally reported to be a productive discussion and positive step forward, the parties agreed on a framework for negotiating a comprehensive agreement to end tensions over Iran’s nuclear program.  The parties will continue to meet prior to July of this year, when the current short-term agreement is due to expire.